Population migration is a major concern for all of the postcommunist countries, and no less so for Georgia, which has experienced a reversal of its population increase since the second world war.
Population trends in 19th century Georgia At the beginning of the 19th century, the native population of Georgia (Georgians and Abkhazians) comprised 86 percent of the entire population. Yet, after imperial Russia occupied Georgia in the beginning of the 19th century, Russian emigration to Georgia increased. Population migration from Russia to Georgia intensified throughout the 1930s as part of Stalin s Russification and collectivization campaigns, and by 1939, Georgian natives comprised only 63 percent of the entire Georgian population.
Other factors, including the massive famine in Russia and Ukraine in the early 1930s that resulted from serious mistakes in agrarian policies, prompted the migration of many Russians to Georgia. Similarly, an increase in industrialization led to the urbanization and increased job opportunities in many Georgian towns. Finally, a large number of Russians fled to Georgia during World War II to avoid Nazi occupation. Collectively, these factors facilitated the increase in Russian migration into Georgia.
Migration Trends After WWII After World War II, and especially in the early 1960s, Georgia experienced a greater population outmigration than a population inmigration. From 1959 to 1988, although outmigration was not significantly high, 181.8 thousand inhabitants of Georgia emigrated to other Soviet republics. Reasons for this migration change included: improvements in standards of living in Russia and other Soviet republics in comparison to Georgia, which can be evidenced by increasing GDP per capita incomes in these republics;
- rise in economic development in Russia that created greater work opportunities
and competition for scarce labor supplies;
- increases in scarcity of prestigious labor opportunities in Georgia
as compared to other republics; and
- growth of cultural awareness and increased education that facilitated
an outmigration of non-native Georgian populations to their ethnohistorical
territories.
Since 1989, the rate of external migration from Georgia has increased significantly, from an outmigration of 1.3 times between 1959 to 1989, to 8.5 times, according to analytical analysis of over 10,000 migration records. One reason for this circumstance was the economic crisis in the early 1990s that had a more negative impact on standards of living in Georgia than in other republics. Rising prices and hyperinflation left the majority of the Georgian population living below the poverty level. A second reason prompting widespread outmigration in Georgia was the increase in ethnopolitical conflicts in Georgia, including rising ethnic tensions between Abkhazians, Georgians and Ossetians. The Russian support facilitated these ethnic conflicts in Georgia that prompted a sharp increase in criminal activity throughout Georgia. Finally, the non-native populations living in Georgia have felt like outsiders living in the republic of Georgia.
This recent, negative balance of migration patterns in Georgia has been dominated by an outmigration of non-native populations. The vast majority of the migrants from Georgia are residing within the CIS; among them, 61.9 percent are living in Russia; 12.7 percent are in Azerbaijan; 8.6 percent are in Ukraine; and, 2.5 percent are in Armenia. Only an estimated 10 percent of outmigration has been to non-CIS member states; 5 percent migrated to Greece, and 4.4 percent migrated to Israel.
It is notable that migrants prefer to return not only to their historical motherland, but also to countries which are not as affected by the current economic crisis of the CIS. For example, of the Armenian migrants from Georgia, 62.6 percent have migrated to Russia; 24.6 percent have returned to Armenia. Similarly, 58.2 percent of the Ukrainian migrants have moved to Russia. This migration pattern suggests that the primary reason for increased outmigration from Georgia is due to the rapid differentiation in the standard of living among the postcommunist countries, particularly in Georgia.
Current statistical evidence suggests that Georgia s labor outmigration will persist for some time, suggesting a need for government intervention. At present, migration information is difficult to collect, and the best way to define the structural and quantitative indices of labor migration require selective investigation. Therefore, it is imperative that the Georgian government becomes actively involved in the creation and supervision of a migration registration system. It is also imperative that labor migration questions are factored into the planned 1999 CIS census.
Internal Migration Trends in Georgia The current economic crisis in Georgia has also prompted an internal migration for urban to rural areas. Georgia s looming economic crisis has had a greater impact on urban areas than on agricultural areas, thus reversing the rural-to-urban migration trend of the pre-1980s, which has now reversed to an urban-to-rural migration in the 1990s. This process is favored by agrarian reforms of the early 1990s which included land privatization, technical advances, and greater autonomy for farmers.
In the future, we anticipate a reversal of this urban-to-rural migration trend, as advanced technology will reduce the demand for labor-intensive agricultural techniques. Yet, a return of the population to urban centers will only take place if there is further development and revival of labor practices that necessarily reverse the pendulum for labor migration to rural areas.
Since the early 1990s, the political and economic situation in Georgia has weakened the intensity of return migration to urban areas, leading to a continued and increased migration to rural areas, or a labor pendulum migration. This trend can be explained by a number of factors, including: a radical reduction in urban employment leading to massive unemployment;
- an increase in transportation costs that exceeds income from labor,
preventing a return to urban areas;
- an increase in rural employment following land reforms.
And even with a rapid revival of urban labor in the late 1990s, the labor migration pendulum will continue to swing toward rural migration, given the continued rise in transportation costs until 2000. As transportation expenses decline as compared with income, the labor pendulum will swing with less intensity, yet the scale of migration to rural areas will exceed the scale of migration witnessed in the 1980s, due to:
- an oversupply of labor in the agricultural sector;
- a continued preference for rural dwelling.
Since the 1990s, the post-Soviet republics have witnessed an increase
in criminal, ethnic cleansing. Prompted by Russian support, Abkhazian and
Ossetian separatists were able to drive out a major percentage of the native
population from their historical provinces in Georgia: Abkhazia and Samachablo.
To date, nearly 290,000 refugees have fled these provinces, and are a factor
in the overpopulation of neighboring provinces in Georgia and other countries.
Notwithstanding the vast contributions of international and humanitarian
organizations, especially US relief efforts, the standard of living among
the majority of Georgia s refugees continues to be poor, and likely to
worsen. Declines in demographic indicators, including a sharp decline in
fertility, have left Georgia with a negative replacement ratio and a process
of depopulation.
The joint efforts of Georgian and international relief organizations to assist refugees in returning to their homelands is having a positive impact on the migration pattern in Georgia. Yet, no matter how soon they return to their native places, the current demographic declines in Georgia will have lasting negative effects on population growth patterns in the years to come.