Subj:  Super 7 calcs			Section: Blackjack/poker
  To:  Hal Hutchison, 70662,2356	25 August 1998 23:01:05
From:  Frank Slinkman [STAFF], 72411,650#7126

OK, here are some numbers for the break even (0%) and certain other player edges.

In the case of the "0%" column, if the number of sevens per deck *exceeds* this number, 
put that $1 on the Super 7 spot.  If the 7s/deck is less than or equal to the number, do 
*not* bet the Super 7.

	# of decks		0%	5%	10%	15%	20%	
25%
	     2		4.84	4.94	5.04	5.14	5.23	5.32
	     4		4.51	4.61	4.70	4.79	4.88	5.97
	     6		4.39	4.49	4.58	4.67	4.76	4.85
	     8		4.33	4.43	4.52	4.61	4.70	4.79

Notice that the increases horizontally are pretty much linear, which makes extrapolation 
easy.  Also, since you'll be dealing with estimates of the number of decks played and 
remaining anyway, it's OK to round these numbers to the nearest 1/10th.  Also, you do not 
have to memorize every number in the table.  You *do* need to memorize the 0% column 
for the game you play, as well as the 5% and 10% points if you plan to include playing 
multiple hands as part of your strategy.  Therefore, if you only play 8-deck games, all you 
really have to memorize is 4.3, 4.4 and 4.5.

Use the table this way:  If you're betting $10 units in a typical 8-deck game, you have 
about a 0.6% disadvantage on your main bet -- about 6 cents.  If you were to play 2 hands 
@ $10 each, you would lose, on average, 12 cents.  Therefore, it would make sense to 
play 2 hands and make the Super 7 bet on each if the number of 7s/deck exceeded about 
4.45, which would give you better than 6% edge on that bet.  So, for each of the two 
hands, you would lose an average of about 6 cents on the main bet and win an average 
of a tad more than 6 cents on the Super 7 bet for a small net positive expectation.

In the typical 4 deck game, you are at about a 0.4% disadvantage; so a 5% or better edge 
on the Super 7 bet more than overcomes that when you're betting $10 units.  This would 
be the logical point to play one or more additional hands.

If you're playing head up you could even use a simple progression like 1-1-2-3-4 BUT, 
when the 7s/deck number is high enough, press the bet by playing additional hands 
instead of by increasing the bet on the primary hand.

Now, to repeat information in previous messages.

To count the 7s.  After each shuffle, set the "running count" equal to the number of 7s in 
the shoe.  This will be four times the number of decks in the shoe.

Decrement the running count each time you see a 7 fall, and don't be shy about asking to 
see the "burn" card.  If it's a 7, you *definitely* want to know about it.  If you start with 32, 
and see 5 sevens fall, the running count will now be 27.  This is the number of 7s left in 
the shoe.

When it comes time to bet, look at the discard pile and estimate the number of decks in 
it.  Try to estimate to the nearest 1/2 deck.  Use this information to extrapolate the number 
of decks still in the shoe by subtracting this number from the total number of decks in 
play.  IOW, if you see 1/2 of a deck in the discard pile after the first round, then you know 
there are 7-1/2 decks left of an 8-deck shoe; or 5-1/2 decks left of a 6-deck shoe, etc.  If 
1/2 decks are too complicated for you, you won't lose too much accuracy by estimating to 
the nearest full deck, provided you round up more often than you round down.

Now divide the running count by this number.  If there are 7-1/2 decks left and the running 
count is 27, then you can multiply the 27 by 2 then divide by 15 to get 54 / 15 which is 3.6. 
 Too low!  Don't bet the Super 7.

Now you get to a situation where the running count of remaining 7s is 18 and there are 
about 4 decks in the discard pile.  Therefore, there are 4 remaining decks; so divide 18 
by 4 to get 4.5.  This tells you you will have about a 9% edge if you bet the Super 7, so bet 
it -- and consider playing multiple hands this round if your bankroll depth can stand the 
additional risk.

The key to this is practice.  The more you do in-your-head exercises like multiply 19 by 2 
then divide by 7, the better and faster and more accurate you get at it.  You'll quickly just 
"know' if the ratio is better than your 0%, 5% and 10% points without having to take the 
calculation all the way to it's conclusion.

*USE* the grey matter that has atrophied ever since you bought that first calculator <g>.  
You'll be surprised at how easily it comes, once you get accustomed to it.