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Re: Card counting and Caribbean Stud
| Author: |
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StanKoG <stankog@aol.com> |
| Date: |
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1996/02/09 |
| Forum: |
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rec.gambling.other-games
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On 7 Feb 1996 20:53:58 GMT manu@holmes.ece.orst.edu (Manu Shrivastava)
wrote:
>Have you done simulations to show that it is not beatable? On what basis
>are you making your claim? I contend that you can get a 0.7% edge with
>the knowledge of all player cards. I have done simulations over millions
>of hands to arrive at that number.
All casino games can be beat -- illegally; some game(s) can be beat --
legally. Therefore, casino games can be beat. However, whether they can be
beat is not the point here. It is how you beat them that matters. I claim
I can rob a bank and be $1,000,000 richer tomorrow. I've a
well-thought-out plan but I need a gun, lots of guts and maybe a partner.
Without the guts I dare not implement it; without the gun the cashier
might not hand me the money; without my partner watching the guard or
waiting in the car with the engine running I probably won't make it. Now
back to your case. You had planned to beat Caribbean Stud. You spent a
couple of nights writing the software for your simulation. You let it run
overnight and presto, you found you have a 0.7% advantage if you can see
every hand. Now three issues must be addressed here:
<1> Since you didn't mention the statistical standard error of your
simulation, I don't know how much confidence you have in your simulation
results. 0.7% is not like 7%; it can be totally wiped out by your
statistical error. Moreover, if you make a mistake in your calculation
while playing your hand in your "bank," your 0.7% edge might become a 0.7%
disadvantage. Nevertheless, I'll give you the benefit of the doubt because
Griffin and Gwynn conclude that the game is beatle with a 2.3% player edge
(by the way, the two professors assumed that the 7 players had available a
high speed computer).
<2> Simulation is one thing, implementation is another. You know you have
a 0.7% advantage because the result of your simulation says so. Now, how
are you going to implement your plan to get that edge? I know for sure
that you need 6 partners at the table because you need to see all 7 hands.
How are you going to gather the information on each 5-card hand? Will you
be able to gather it from each partner in 30 seconds? Will you be able to
remember the suit and the denomination of each of the 5x7+1=36 cards (one
mistake, your edge can be your disadvantage)? Most importantly, will you
be able to calculate accurately and in 30 seconds the expectation for each
hand based on the 36 cards you already know (remember the dealer's hand
has 1820 possible combinations)? I know I can't because I am not "rain
man."
<3> If you're not capable of 2> above then you need computers. A computer
is your "gun," and can lead to all 7 of you thrown into jail. Do you have
your gun? Do you have the guts to pull the trigger?
I have no doubt that the game can be beat but the question is how.
Blackjack can be beat, but not if they shuffle on you when you have an
edge. Blackjack can be beat, but not if you can't get decent penetration.
In my last post in response to Mr. D.J. Murphy, I carefully worded my
point of view:
"Sorry, but there is no _legitimate_ way to beat this game ...
Don't give up, though. There is an _illegitimate_ way to beat the game
..." Today I still think so. Before you make another post announcing to
the world that Caribbean Stud is beatable, make sure you have answers to
all the questions I've raised.
Stanley Ko "Payback isn't Everything."
StanKoG@aol.com
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