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Subject:      Re: Low Rolling Advantage (was: Grant's Assertion)
From:         Roger P Williams <rpw03@gnofn.org>
Date:         1997/07/12
Message-ID:   <5q6m8f$r63@junkie.gnofn.org>
Newsgroups:   rec.gambling.blackjack
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: DOUGLAS REIMAN <dggrant@worldnet.att.net> wrote:

: : It’s over man.  Admit it.  Or provide me with some mathematical proof that
: : you can gain *any* advantage against the arsenal of weapons the casinos use
: : against suspect card counters.  Moreover, even if you could gan a +.20
: : advantage if you bet no more than $25?  Why would you play?  Have you ever
: : considered how much money you would need as a lifetime bank with only a
: : .20% advantage?  Man the interest on your lifetime bank would pay you much
: : more than you could ever win.  So if you can get away (for a while) playing
: : nickels with a +.20 advantage - who cares?

As I promised, here's my answer -- my "system" for coming out a winner,
and the reason I use it.

The first thing you have to understand about me -- and about most
gamblers, really -- is that I'm not out to (1) win the whole casino or
(2) spend my entire life there.  The first objective is too hard, and the
second is too much like work -- and I already have a job, thank you, which
I like and which I am good at.  I /am/ out to win as much as I can,
though, or at least make sure I'm not losing too much.

The sources of advantage are, as I've said, small and sometimes marginal.
They also change over time, but something is usually out there which can
be exploited.  Some examples are:

-- Positive tournaments.  Know your expectation and learn tournament
strategy for the game involved.  This isn't hard; it's a lot easier than
counting.  Good ruthless tournament strategy will give you about a 50%
advantage over the other players in the tough Gulf Coast market BJ
tournaments, and about 500-1000% (not a typo) at a craps tournament if you
can find one.  Of course, this is on a longshot bet and your action is
limited to the tournament buy-in, but an advantage is an advantage.
(These advantages are proven for several different people who have kept
long-term statistics for themselves over literally thousands of
tournaments, and are quite valid statistically.)

-- Low limit card counting at casinos that permit it.  Better yet, meet
some counters at the tournaments, and follow them around.  Even better
than that, don't bother learning to count yourself (a real pain IMO) and
just wait until you spot a counter you know at a BJ table.  Sidle up,
start up a conversation, and size your bets according to his.  (You /do/
have to know enough about counting to size your bankroll and evaluate
whether your "helper" is competent.)  There are a number of folks in
Mississippi who think I count cards myself because of this, hee hee hee.

-- Special promotions, like 2:1 BJ, free tournaments, and drawings.  In
the case of tournaments and drawings, FIGURE OUT YOUR EXPECTATION.  Since
you don't win very often, this will tell you whether you are getting
sufficient action in the long run to offset your negative EV betting.

-- COUPONS.  Let no match-play go unplayed.  I do not personally favor the
tactic of hedging match-plays; this is tacky and discourages the casino
from issuing them.  Be a man and play them one at a time.  KNOW YOUR
EXPECTATION and you can tell how much negative EV gambling you can do
without long-term loss because you played one match-play (typically about
an hour the way I play).  It doesn't matter whether you win or lose a
/particular/ match-play, because it's the long run that matters.  Also, at
some casinos you can find squeamish bus riders, etc. who will /give/ you
their match plays, who discard them in the Keno area.  This is free money.
Take it and griiiin.

-- Pig machines.  Best and easiest advantage play to be found for the
low-roller.  Play for one coin when the bank is at 25 or higher.  I don't
know the exact advantage -- subject of some debate elsewhere -- but if you
restrict yourself to higher banks it is substantial.  Of course, you spend
quite a bit of time cruising for machines, and depend on the suckers to
load them for you.

-- Low, low level negative expectation betting when nothing else is
available.  My favorite game for this is not BJ, but craps.  Reasons are:
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