by the Green Baize Vampire

Of all casino games, craps is generally considered to be the toughest to beat, despite the fact that some of the bets have the lowest expectation in the house.

I'll make no attempt to explain the rules here but point you in the direction of the excellent rec.gambling.craps-FAQ at:-
http://www.conjelco.com/faq/craps.html

Craps is a very complicated game. Some professional gamblers never learn the rules properly. The reason for this is simple: craps is a negative expectation game. However low that vigorish may be there is no way to overcome it.

Or is there? In fact there are a few angles. It's possible to make a few thousand a year in expected value at craps.

One simple idea: find someone betting on the don't come or the don't pass and declaring "no action", offer to buy this chaps bet, and you have 6-5 proposition on an even money bet, if the casino lets you get away with it. Another similar idea involves selling your pass line bet over to someone who wants to increase theirs on a point roll.

Alternatively, try acting as the shooter in the high roller pit. If you get lucky the high-rollers may toke you as a reward. The fairer sex can make a small fortune this way.

Because of that low house edge you can sometimes make a profit on casino complimentaries if you know how to work that system. Spend half an hour setting the dice, betting weird amounts to slow down the payoffs, and the pit will tend to overestimate your action. Stick to the pass, don't pass, come and don't come bets, and you will have a less than 1% disadvantage.

Dealer errors can turn the odds in your favour. If you stick to the sharp wagers one dealer payoff per hour will swing the odds your way. Of course, dealer errors will help just as often help as hinder, but you (and other players) can helpfully point out those which go against you, while drawing a discreet veil over those which benefit you. Craps is the game to take advantage of or induce errors dealer errors at. Running the game requires more proficiency than any other casino game, and rookie dealers can make 3-4 hours an error at a full table.

Tourneys can be very lucrative for craps players. This is largely because of the paucity of skilled or knowledgeable players, who prefer games like blackjack. Crap tourneys frequently have expectations of between 500-1000% for the expert.

In private games winning is simple. Consistently fading the shooter will get you a 1.4% edge. The bet has a positive expectation because double sixes are not barred as in normal casino play.

Finally, there is the age-old question of whether the shooter can control the dice. In private games dice-control has been going on as long as the game itself. It is one of the standard tricks of hustlers. But casinos have backboards designed to randomize the throw of the dice which greatly complicates matters.

Nevertheless many expert gambling authorities have stated that with years of practice it is possible to throw the dice with the same trajectory, same velocity and the same landing point and thereby change the odds in the shooters favour.

It is not neccessary or even desireable for the shooter to exert 100% control over the dice, relatively small shifts in percentages can turn the odds decisively in the players favour.

Sceptics might consider that you only need to improve the chances of rolling an 8 by 2.7% to have an 8% advantage. Such an edge would wipe out the casinos bottom line in a fairly short space of time.

How might you go about performing a controlled dice shot? Well, there are a number of methods. Discounting sliding dice (whereby one die does not touch the back wall and is an illegal throw) there are a number of pointers to reduce the randomness of the outcome.

1) Throw the dice with a minimum of force. The greater the velocity the more random the outcome.

2) Only let the dice bounce once before they hit the wall.

3) Keep the dice square-up.

4) Don't hit the side walls.

5) Try to bounce one die off the top of the other as it hits the felt therby "pinning" the die.

6) Practice like mad.

There have been a number of controlled shot throws devised by authors such as John Scarne, John Gollehon, Darwin Ortiz and Frank Scoblete. It seems plausible that most of these methods would work in the hands of an expert. But, in my opinion, the type of shot used is irrelevant. Any throw can consistently warp the odds if it is consistent. No throw devised can give the player the advantage unless he is prepared to learn how to execute it to perfection.

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