(WRITTEN LATE DURING 2001 SEASON) If you've been reading my "Predicting Improvement" or "How Deep is Deep?" threads, you certainly know by now I like to shake the tree of *commonly accepted wisdom*. Well, here comes a new perspective that should hit about 8.7 on the Richter Scale. I have accepted the party line that Relievers are not worth keeping for the most part. I accepted the premise that RP stats were erratic and unreliable, and that you can "always" find a new closer during the season. But, I started digging and was quite surprised by what I found. Each team needs a MINIMUM of 2 closers, (and will likely need a third for at least part of the season to reach the 140 game total). Therefore, in a 10-team league, the top 20 closers are always going to be in use. So, let's take a look at today's top 20 relievers by total FPs. I've shown the current FPs totals for each. To the right I am showing the final ranking among RPs for each closer from '98 - '01. Obviously, the last number is the current rank, and could change by year end. '01 569 1) Rivera 10,2,7,1 523 2) Nen 3,13,3,2 [HELTON LEVEL - 525] 509 3) Percival 9,19,17,3 483 4) Sasaki NA, NA, 11,4 471 5) Foulke 165, 21, 5, 5 470 6) Benitez 20,11,1,6 462 7) Shaw 5,14,24,7 [CHIPPER LEVEL - 459] 444 8) Mesa 162,23,162,8 435 9) Hoffman 1,4,4,9 417 10) Wagner 12,1,83,10 [SWEENY - 421] 395 11) Wickman 21,15,16,11 376 12) Isringhausen NA, 49,12,12 365 13) Flash Gordon NA, 2,64,13 [O'NEIL - 362] 365 14) Zimmerman NA, 30, 178, 14 345 15) Koch NA, 20,8,15 343 16) Lowe 51,17,2,16 341 17) Kim NA, 305, 28, 17 325 18) Graves 37,10,10,18 [E.YOUNG - 317] 319 19) M.Williams 164, 29, 18, 19 318 20) Alfonseca 62,26,6,20 The numbers above indicate that the top 10 closers put up FP totals at or above typical keeper level guys at other positions. There is indeed a lot of movement WITHIN the closer ranks. But those in the top 10 do *tend* to stay there. Rivera, Nen, Hoffman are examples, while those in the second 20 also *tend* to stay there. The pattern gets even more solid when you adjust for injuries. (Pedro and Nomar aren't suddenly dropped from keeper consideration). The key factor with ALL these guys is are they **THE** CLOSER. When you get committee bullpens, the numbers go down, (just ask Kim and Lowe). When a closer loses his job, his worth drops to nearly nil. But, most of the BIG swings in the numbers above are the result of injury years. Outside of losing your job as closer, everyone generally sticks to a plus or minus 10 positions. And the top RPs are going to earn you FAR more FPs than the mid-level position players, (and TOTAL FPs is what matters). In '99, Rivera, as the 7th ranked RP, generated 561 FPs. In comparison, Troy Glaus earned 484 FPs in '00, and was argued as a top keeper for half this season, because he was #2 to Chipper, (or perceived to be so). Ultimately, Mike Lowell (309) and Percival (509) are more valuable than Chipper (459) and Koch (345). The key factor is that the top closers have a HUGE upside compared to position players. But, lots of closers go south and end up being worthless, you say. Well, let's look at some *name* closers who have done so this season. Take a look at their RP rankings the past four seasons. Urbina - 7,3,78,22 Rocker - 227,6,25,23 Hernandez - 25,5,14,25 Urbina suffered an injury in 2000, and lost his closer role by being traded. His performance level while playing has been solid. Rocker was only a top closer ONE YEAR. Highly over-rated from the getgo. Hernandez, likewise, had a huge jump one season, and has finally fallen back to where you expect him to be. The most important variables in performance are 1) Are you THE closer? and 2) Injury. Well, injury hits ALL positions, and you cannot predict it. But top closers DO keep their jobs, and ARE reliable to produce better numbers than positional players. Ultimately, the risk (and fear) about RPs is that their personal FPs swing wildly from year to year. BUT, if the swing STILL leaves them above the total FPs of a Mike Sweeney, it's just plain silly to dismiss them out of hand. All in all, I'd say the following RPs *should* be seriously considered as keepers. 1) Rivera 10,2,7,1 2) Nen 3,13,3,2 3) Foulke 165, 21, 5, 5 4) Benitez 20,11,1,6 5) Hoffman 1,4,4,9 6) Wagner 12,1,83,10 7) Flash Gordon NA, 2,64,13 8) Sasaki NA, NA, 11,4 9) Zimmerman NA, 30, 178, 14 All the above guys have finished in the top 10 at least twice in the past four years, except the last two. I'm including Flash because he missed 6 weeks and will almost certainly make the top 10 by year end. Zimmerman is a bit of a gamble, but is just getting his first shot at full time closer, and has less time this season as #1 closer than Flash. [borderline] 10) Percival 9,19,17,3 11) Shaw 5,14,24,7 Both these guys spent a year in the top 10, then two years in the 2nd 10. This makes it difficult to judge where they *really* should go. In truth, they are probably less risk than Zimmerman. Personally, I think the top 5 closers: Rivera, Nen, Foulke, Benitez, and Hoffman all fit the profile to continue performing great in their closer roles, and WILL generate more total FPs than almost any #2 IF outside of 1B.