December 15, 2000

But we're stuck with him now, and so the punditocracy has been going through the standard drill.  Bipartisanship, the Vital Center, yada yada yada.   No one believes it, not even the pundits who say it - by the second fifteen minutes, or the fourth paragraph down, they admit what everyone knows.  We're all in for a rocky time, and no one more than George W. Bush.

Okay, let me stop and admit that miracles are always possible.   Mythology is full of ne'er-do-wells who, when thrust into the Big Job, soared above all expectations, the classic model being Prince Hal's transformation into Henry V.   But that's Shakespeare, not history, and the example isn't promising.  Bush's past is not colorfully sordid - Sir John Falstaff would not have wasted the time of day on him.  He has no better claim to infamy than spending 18 months dodging a flight surgeon; getting drunk and driving a car off the road; and the vaguely unsettled question of whether he ever coked up. 

Bush couldn't even steal the election on his own.  The Boss Tweed stuff was all left to the hired help, from Jim Baker to Katherine Harris, while Boy George hid out on his ranch. 

So - miracles aside - what do we have to look forward to during the transition and the opening weeks of Bush II: The Sequel?  How long will the sweetness 'n' light last, and what will put an end to it?  The best if indelicate answer was given by a friend: it will end as soon as Bush steps in his first dog turd.

Cabinet appointments offer early promise in this regard.  The foreign-policy team is safe.  Colin Powell and Condoleeza Rice are very nice, rather apolitical courtiers (bonus points for being black).  And no one cares who gets honorific posts like Veterans' Affairs.  But when we get to the big domestic-policy positions - Interior, Health and Human Services, and above all Attorney General - the sweet tidings of good cheer are likely to fade.  When it comes to those appointments, Bush is forked.  If he names moderates, even "moderate conservatives," the domineering Tom DeLay wing of the GOP will have a hissy fit.   They bought into Bush not from loyalty but to get power for themselves.  The moment he turns fails to grant their every wish they will leave his sinking ship like, well, rats.  But if he keeps his lips firmly attached to their backsides, and sends up right-wing foamers for the key nominations, the Senate Democrats will start sharpening their knives.  Well, actually they are sharpening them already. 

In theory, Bush has one advantage in threading his passage between Scylla and Charybdis.  Since he has no actual ideology to speak of (ideology requires ideas, of some sort even if bad ones), he need not be encumbered by doctrine.  For an able, ruthless politician this would indeed be a golden moment.   If Bush were smart, he would put Tom DeLay's head on a pike over the White House gate on January 21, as a lesson to the rest.  The Republican Right would take due instruction from the one thing they understand, while the Democrats would be so stunned that they'd be at Bush's feet for the next four years.  Old Nick Machiavelli would nod approval.

Fat chance.

Bush, so far as anyone can tell, really believes that he can coast and schmooze his way through the next four years the way he did in Texas.  He won't.   Four weeks, maybe, before the honeymoon ends.

And I don't suppose the Supreme Court will give us an annulment ...

-- Rick Robinson

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Last revised 11/07/2006 ... by RM Robinson

Email me: Lyonesse@compuserve.com

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