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For what it's worth, here is my look at
electoral-vote picture as of now, five days before the election: I start with a
conservative baseline estimate, giving Gore a solid base only of what he should take even
in a Bush blowout, 99 electoral votes short of the 270 he needs in order to win. My base
vote for Bush is more generous, allowing for no real Gore surprises. This gives me a
baseline as follows:
GORE BASE - The Northeast except for New Hampshire
and Maine; plus Illinois, California, and Hawaii = 171 Electoral Votes.
BUSH BASE - The South except for Florida,
Tennessee, and Arkansas; plus the interior West except for New Mexico and Nevada; plus
Alaska = 205 Electoral Votes.
That leaves, as swing states:
THE BIG THREE - Florida, Pennsylvania, and Michigan
= 66 Electoral Votes.
OTHER SWING STATES - Maine, New Hampshire, West
Virginia, Tennessee, Arkansas, Missouri, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Mexico, Nevada,
Oregon, and Washington = 96 Electoral Votes.
State polls vary quite a bit, but center of spectrum has Gore running even or ahead in all
of the Big Three - and if he wins all three, he's two-thirds of the way to 270. He would
then need only just over a third of the remaining swing-state votes to go over the top.
If Gore wins the Big Three plus Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Washington - but no others - we
get the bizarro outcome: a 269-269 Electoral College tie, throwing the election into the
House of Representatives. For Washington you can substitute either Missouri or Tennessee
and get the same result. Notice that these are perfectly reasonable outcomes, about as
likely as any other combination. (But any additional states will put Gore clearly over the
top in the Electoral College.)
Even more plausible are outcomes where Gore wins a split decision, getting 270+ in the
electoral vote while Bush ends a point or two ahead in the popular vote. But note that
even if this happens, Bush is unlikely to be able to claim a majority in the
popular vote - at least 3 pct of the vote is likely to go to the various third-party
candidates, so a split decision will almost certainly mean that Bush was held under 50
pct.
If Gore fails to take one of the Big Three swing states it is more uphill - but not out of
reach. Suppose that he falls short in Florida (the most electoral-vote rich of the three
with 25 EVs). Michigan and Pennsylvania added to Gore's base gives him 212 electoral
votes. Gore's best prospects among the other swing states are probably Maine, Wisconsin,
Minnesota, Washington, and Oregon. They bring him to 255 EVs. Missouri - where the
Carnahan factor promises to energize Democrats - plus any other state would then bring him
to at least 270. (Even without Missouri, a combination of New Hampshire, Iowa, and Nevada
would bring him to 270.)
These are all combinations that look doable now, even with Bush leading by 3-4 points in
the national polls, and without any Nader supporters cashing a reality check once they get
in the voting booth. With just a couple of points of closing in the national polls, and a
point or so of ex-Nader supporters on Tuesday, Gore remains in striking distance of
winning the popular vote ... in which case he is nearly certain to win handily in the
Electoral College.
Note: A handy interactive electoral-map simulator is available here.
-- Rick Robinson |
