| MONTREAL - The English have just done it, the French are about to do it, and so are the Canadians: on June 2, voters will head for the polls to decide whether Prime Minister Jean Chrétien's Liberal Party deserves to remain in power for another four years. Chances are that he will, if only for lack of a viable alternative. |
| The last election, held in 1993, had the impact of a 7.4 earthquake on the Canadian political landscape: out went the Conservatives (who, along with the Liberals, had dominated the scene since the country's foundation in 1867), replaced by the Reform Party and the Bloc Québécois. These two new parties have very localised power-bases, the Reform in the western part of the country and the Bloc entirely in Quebec. This should allow the Liberals – barring any major resurgence on the part of the Tories - to squeeze through to a new term. |
| Many analysts question the wisdom of Prime Minister Chrétien's decision to call an election at this time. Even though polls consistently give him an approval rating of approximately 55%, his popularity has been on the decline of late and it is felt he should have waited a few more months, as he was allowed to do. After a roaring start in 1993, the Liberals have faltered and lost most of their post-election momentum. |
| Among the issues to blame was their decision to renege on their pre-election promise to do away with the highly unpopular Goods and Services Tax. Breaking the promise forced one of Chrétien's top lieutenants to resign and stand for re-election and obliged the Prime Minister vehemently to defend himself in the media. Then there were scandals in the Canadian army and the feeling the government was engaged in a cover-up, and, on top of that, there was a slowdown in the economy. |
| Then the Liberal campaign got off to a very shaky start. For one thing, the Liberals' decision to call an election comes at a time when hundreds of thousands of people are battling the aftermath of floods in the western province of Manitoba. People there have other things to worry about than who to vote for and feel the government should be busy helping them, not trying to get re-elected. The situation is so bad that special measures will have to be taken to allow residents of the flooded areas to take part in the vote. That resentment could allow the Reform Party to steal many of the Liberals' votes and get a few more deputies elected, which could allow it to form the next official opposition in Ottawa. |
| As far as the Bloc Québécois goes, it has been in serious turmoil ever since its founding father, Lucien Bouchard, left to become Prime Minister of Quebec. The new leader, Gilles Duceppe, won the job after a campaign that left the party bitterly divided. Duceppe is trying desperately to give his party the focus and drive it will need if it is to repeat – or improve on - its 1993 performance, which saw it win 55 seats in Quebec, making it the official Opposition. Even though the vote is less than a month away, Duceppe's election machine is still plagued by problems that make it look amateurish and improvised. A case in point: a few days ago, a busload of journalists on their way to one of the Bloc leader's public appearances got lost for 45 minutes after the driver was given erroneous directions by a Bloc official. Duceppe's reaction? Fire the bus driver. |
| The Reform Party, on the other hand, scored the first big hit of the campaign when it first obtained, and then leaked the Liberals' election platform a full 24 hours before the Liberals had been set to do so. The Reform Party's leader, Preston Manning, tried to capitalise as much as he could on his scoop, but the whole thing has proved more embarrassing than truly damaging. Reformists can still seriously aspire to form the next official opposition, especially if the Bloc Québécois does not get its act together and get as many deputies elected in Quebec as it did last time around. |
| The last two parties contending for power in this election, the Tories and the New Democratic Party (NDP), are in total disarray. Since the disastrous 1993 election, which left them with only two members in Parliament, the Tories have been busy rebuilding their power-base. Their leader, Jean Charest, would probably be happy to simply not get completely wiped off the map; the Tories' main hunting grounds for votes are Quebec, Ontario and the Maritime provinces. Finally, the NDP too has a new leader, Alexa McDonough, and one of her first declarations was to the effect that the NDP shouldn't aspire to form the next Opposition, let alone the next government, but should set more realistic goals for itself. That caused much dissatisfaction among party members who saw her declaration as "defeatist"; the truth of it is, Mrs. McDonough was just being realistic: the NDP has never been very popular in Canada and has come close to total obliteration several times. |